GOP Health-Care Bill: Will It Pass? The Whip Count

The first major legislative test of Donald Trump’s presidency is slated for Thursday night, when the House holds its highly anticipated vote on the Republican health-care bill. There are no Democrats who are expected to support the bill, but it also has detractors within the GOP. 

Some conservatives are rejecting the bill, which would replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), because it’s not a clean repeal of the ACA. The nicknames say it all -- “Obamacare 2.0” and “Obamacare Lite.” Moderates complain that moving up the timeline to roll back the ACA’s Medicaid expansion would leave too many without insurance. Many of the bill’s opponents also criticize it for not doing enough to control rising premium costs. 

The stakes are high -- Mr. Trump says he “100 percent” supports the bill and has spent the last few weeks making a hard sell. He told Republicans Tuesday it would be embarrassing if the plan failed, and he warned them that their seats and the Republican majority are in danger in 2018 if they don’t pass the bill. 

But reluctant House Republicans may also be looking toward the Senate, as they weigh their votes. At least three senators -- Rand Paul, Mike Lee and Tom Cotton -- currently oppose the bill, Ted Cruz told “Face the Nation” Sunday he can’t support the bill as it stands, and four other senators have objected to the treatment of the Medicaid expansion in the bill. If three Republican senators vote against the bill, the American Healthcare Act  will die in the Senate, which has a slim 52-48 Republican majority. Some in the House are not going to want to cast a difficult vote for a measure that may be destined to fail.

Republicans need 216 votes to win passage in the House. They can lose no more than 21. If they lose 22, there would likely be a 215 to 215 tie, which means the bill would fail. 

Here’s CBS News’ list of the House Republicans who at this moment say they cannot support the bill in its current form. It’s a list that’s subject to change, with a lot of arms to be twisted and horses to be traded in the next couple of days. We will be updating the regularly, if and when members decide on how they’re voting or change their minds. 

Justin Amash, R-Mich. 

Lou Barletta, R-Penn. 

Dave Brat, R-Va.

Mo Brooks, R-Ala. 

Rod Blum, R-Ia

Ted Budd, R-N.C. 

Rick Crawford, R-Ark.

Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio

Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa. 

Tom Garrett, R-Va. 

Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tx. 

Paul Gosar, R-Az. 

Walter Jones, R-N.C. 

Jim Jordan, R-Ohio  

John Katko, R-N.J. 

Raul Labrador, R-Idaho 

Leonard Lance, R-N.J. 

Thomas Massie, R-Ky.

Mark Meadows, R-N.C.

Scott Perry, R-Pa. 

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fl. 

Glenn Thompson, R-Pa. 

Robert Wittman, R-Va. :

Ted Yoho, R-Fl.