Could The Big 12 Be In Danger Of Missing The CFP?

The Big 12 is slowly creeping up on Boise State in the College Football Playoff rankings, but it might not be enough for the power conference champion to secure a first-round bye.

In recent weeks, the selection committee has made it clear the Big 12 needs an emphatic, overwhelming champion to leapfrog No. 11 Boise State. It could happen, but it seems less likely with each passing week. 

With nine teams still alive for the conference championship heading into the regular-season finale, the Big 12 is a mess. The two highest-ranked teams -- No. 16 Arizona State and No. 18 Iowa State -- face another concern that hasn't gone unnoticed: Is the door open for No. 17 Tulane to win the AAC championship, jump the Big 12 and potentially push the power conference out of the 12-team field entirely?

It's unlikely, sure, but worth monitoring.

The Big 12 needed a BYU win at Arizona State last week. Instead, the Cougars fell on the road when a Hail Mary pass was caught short of the end zone at the 2-yard line. BYU entered last week at No. 14, just two spots behind Boise State, but plummeted to No. 19 this week as Arizona State and Iowa State moved up. Kansas State also entered the rankings at No. 24.

There's just one problem: Kansas State, which beat Tulane in New Orleans earlier this season, is ranked below the Green Wave. Once again, it's clear the committee does not view the Big 12 in a favorable light. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark went on the offensive Monday.

"Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12's champion not getting a first-round bye," Yormark told Yahoo Sports. "The winner of our championship should receive a bye. I have a lot of trust in the selection committee and I'm sure they'll see it that way. Just look at the data. The data doesn't lie. From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State."

Regarding head-to-head schedules, the Big 12's contenders have the upper hand. Boise State's strength of schedule ranks 81st, 15 spots below Arizona State. The Sun Devils and Broncos also have a common opponent in Wyoming. Arizona State defeated the Cowboys 48-7 in its season opener. Last week, the Broncos struggled to put them away in a 17-13 road win, which included a stretch without Heisman Trophy hopeful Ashton Jeanty on the field.

The Sun Devils also own back-to-back wins against ranked teams heading into the final week, while Boise State has none. America has fallen in love with Ashton Jeanty, but that shouldn't overshadow the Broncos' weaker résumé.

If two-loss Iowa State or another lower-ranked team like No. 25 Colorado, with three losses, wins the Big 12 title, what happens then? A first-round bye is likely off the board, but would Tulane jump to the front of the pile as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion? The Green Wave jumped four spots this week despite not playing, but their strength of schedule is much worse than the Big 12 contenders, coming in at No. 100. Again, Kansas State remains below Tulane despite the head-to-head advantage.

Meanwhile, the SEC is in the shadows, wringing its hands and likely devising a campaign to push the committee to consider a fourth team from the conference. Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina are on the outside, ranked No. 13-15, but the Gamecocks have an opportunity to improve their three-loss résumé with a trip to No. 12 Clemson this week. Alabama owns a head-to-head win against South Carolina.

Two weeks remain, and for one more week, the selection committee will conduct its exercise of ranking the 25 best teams. Then comes the one that matters on Selection Sunday -- and all bets are off after the fiasco of 2023, when Florida State was controversially dropped from the field.

We toil for now, but like a pile of leaves on a windy fall day, the CFP rankings will again blow away this weekend. And the committee will start anew after yet another unpredictable slate of games.