OKC Budget Workshop Prepares For 2023 Recession

Oklahoma City officials examined the economic forecast and estimated revenue during the annual City Council Budget workshop.

On Tuesday, city councilors along with other leaders from across the city met at the OKC Convention Center to examine what economic factors could impact the outlook for 2023.

Outside the convention center, the forecast was gloomy. Inside the meeting hall, the economic forecast was as well.

“A little bit gloomy,” says Russell Evans. “But at the same time I think it’s a realistic outlook.” 

Evans is the Chief Economist for Thorberg Collectorate. He presented that outlook before the workshop.

“We’re in for a very different 2023 than 2022,” he believes. “A recession is certainly a possibility.”

It’s a possibility that few want to hear, but cities must consider.

“We’re not saying out loud yet,” OKC Budget Manager, Christian York, said. “We’re building our budget based on a very conservative growth estimate for next year.”

Conservative growth estimates mean a conservative budgeting approach.

“We’re operating within a safety margin,” York said. “To make sure we’re not riding a budget rollercoaster with our city services and our staffing.”

It’s an attempt to not overextend and make sure reserves and funds are there in case of a recession. The approach comes on the heels of a lucrative 2022.

“Luckily, we have a lot of sectors that are doing very well. Our sales tax growth has been unprecedented over the last year,” York said.

It was a year that was supported by monetary and economic policy, according to Evans.

“Households were flushed with savings and access to credit,” he points out. “In 2023 neither of those things are true.”

Whether recession comes or not, his advice is the same for the city as it is for families.

“A year you want to approach with a certain amount of caution, but at the same time not panic,” Evans said.

Evans believes if a recession comes it would be in the latter part of the year.

Right now, the city’s sales tax estimate is just over one percent.