Weather Blog: Tracking Two Systems This Week

The mostly clear skies overnight have led to the development of fog this morning in parts of eastern Oklahoma. A dense fog advisory will remain for most of the region through the early morning hours. Visibility may drop during the morning commute. Use caution. 

What will the weather be like on Tuesday afternoon?

By late morning, we expect more some sunshine before more clouds arrive into the afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 70s in the north and lower 80s in the south.

A strong shortwave from the Intermountain region moving into the Central Plains could bring a few showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening.

The southern sections may see higher chances due to deeper moisture. Locations to the west and southwest of the metro may see a few strong to near severe storms this evening with nickel hail and wind gusts near 60 mph in a few cells.

As the upper-level low moves east tonight and tomorrow, it will become cut off from the main airflow and linger over the Mississippi Valley region later this week. We anticipate stable conditions following this system, with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the upper 70s to near 80s.

What are the chances for rain this week?

A tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico soon and may strengthen into a hurricane soon. While its direct impacts of a landfilling hurricane should remain along the NE Gulf Coastal region, this system will help to influence our weather later in the week.

Most global model data indicates an interaction between the landfalling tropical system and a stalling upper-level low across the Mississippi Valley region. The tropical system is expected to influence the cutoff low, potentially causing it to retrograde or move westward Thursday night into Friday.

Tropical moisture may become entrained in the cutoff low, moving across Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma starting Thursday night and continuing throughout Friday. The exact development of the upper air system is uncertain at this point, but it should bring showers near and east of the metro on Friday, with much lower probabilities along the I-35 corridor. 

Friday night football games may be impacted by rain. Most of the precipitation is expected to exit the area late Friday evening as the low begins moving eastward, but a few lingering showers may continue early Saturday across the eastern third of the state. We’ll only keep low-end mentions on Saturday morning, with decreasing clouds by the afternoon. 

Regarding the developing tropical system:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is expected to become a named storm later today, likely to be called Tropical Storm Helene, and will intensify into a hurricane after it passes between the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba early Wednesday morning. 

Rapid intensification is possible Wednesday evening into early Thursday as the system nears the south-southwestern Florida Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

While the exact landfall location could vary in the short-term data, mostly into the Big Bend of Florida Thursday, the system's impact is anticipated to be widespread. Regions from southern Alabama through Florida and Georgia should stay vigilant as the system strengthens in the coming days.

Emergency Info: Outages Across Oklahoma:

Northeast Oklahoma has various power companies and electric cooperatives, many of which have overlapping areas of coverage. Below is a link to various outage maps.

PSO Outage Map

OG&E Outage Map

VVEC Outage Map

Indian Electric Cooperative (IEC) Outage Map

Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives Outage Map - (Note Several Smaller Co-ops Included)

The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/49k82eagdBuDVKfBTXeNXj

The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Apple:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/weather-out-the-door/id1499556141?i=1000670506273

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