How Tinker Air Force Base Pioneered Storm Predictions In 1948

Storm predictions have come a long way. It all started 76 years ago -- two U.S. Air Force meteorologists at Tinker Air Force Base issued the country’s first tornado warning. Their milestone paved the way for forecasters. 

Tech. Sgt. Andrew Farley said forecasters learn from the past to anticipate what will happen next. He briefs pilots and people at Tinker Air Force Base about Mother Nature’s plans. 

“Where [storms are] at in relation to where they are,” said Farley, talking about how he communicates with pilots about weather conditions around the base. 

Farley’s skillset was made possible by two gentlemen who set the stage for storm prediction on March 25, 1948. Maj. Ernest Fawbush and Capt. Robert Miller issued the first tornado warning. 

“The story to that actually starts five days earlier on March 20,” Farley said. 

The tornado on March 20, 1948, injured several people and produced $10 million (valued at more than $120 million today) in damage. “It prompted them to set up the first-ever storm prediction center,” Farley said. 

Miller and Fawbush pieced together weather patterns to predict a second storm five days later -- likely saving lives, according to historical records at Tinker Air Force Base. “We saved over four million dollars in assets,” Farley said. 

Farley said these men racked up a near 90 percent accuracy rate. “They did a phenomenal job, especially with the equipment that they had,” Farley said. 

Farley said they still use some of the weather prediction methods from 1948. “We still use those same indicators today,” Farley said. “Only today we have much better satellites.” 

The lessons learned from the past helped forecasters predict the future today. “Then personnel know to take cover and seek shelter,” Farley said. “Definitely gives you a sense of pride.” 

Tinker officials said the first prediction was instrumental in the base’s evacuation plans. It also helped the base develop strategies to protect millions of dollars in aircraft from storm damage.