The Hot Seat: Polling Accuracy, Media Coverage Under Scrutiny After Election

In the aftermath of another election cycle with surprising results, the reliability of public opinion polls and the media's coverage of them have come under intense scrutiny.

News On 6 Political Analyst Scott Mitchell sat down with pollster Kyle Loveless of WPA to discuss the challenges and potential solutions to polling accuracy and its media coverage.

The Credibility Gap

In a recent appearance on News 9, Mitchell expressed his frustration with the polling industry, saying, "This happened. This is three elections in a row... I'm not going to listen to them again. Okay, we should just quit."

Mitchell believes the media also bear some responsibility: "We're going to have to have a discussion about how we cover people who are so incredibly inaccurate. Don't you think? Okay, so is fair or not fair."

Differentiating Public and Internal Polling

Loveless said criticism as fair and noted the need to distinguish between public polling and internal campaign data.

"When you're dealing with polling, you have to differentiate between public polling and inside internal campaign," he explained.

The Importance of Cross-Tabs

Loveless said cross-tabs, a detailed breakdown of survey data that provides deeper insights into demographic trends, are important too.

"The cross tab is a huge binder of data that basically takes all of the information from the survey, and the survey is when you contact a voter, you ask them the questions, then it puts it into basically a long sheet of paper, like a long, extended Excel sheet, where you can differentiate between different demographics, Republicans, age, sex, education, those types of things."

Challenges in Media Reporting

Scott Mitchell pointed out the difficulty journalists face in fully understanding and reporting on the complexities of polling data.

Loveless provided an example of a recent poll in Iowa that initially showed a significant error, which the pollster later had to correct and apologize for. He stressed the need for media outlets to be more cautious and thorough in their reporting to avoid amplifying inaccurate information.

Improving Polling and Media Practices

Loveless suggested that with the right approach, current technology can provide more accurate snapshots of public opinion.

"We have the technology now to give you that that accurate snapshot in time, but we also have the times, kind of like a TiVo in time. We back up a little bit, and we can see the things of party registration. We can look at other demographic changes, and if we don't make the changes for and balance the poll so that you take in people's education, make sure that it's demographically balanced, make sure that it's accurate to the census, so that it reflects what's actually going on, then you're going to get it wrong."

Both Mitchell and Loveless emphasized the importance of media outlets prioritizing accuracy over speed in their reporting.

"Don't be in a rush to get it out the quickest. Make sure that it's right," Loveless said.