Tracking Storm Chances

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TULSA, Okla. - Shower and storm chances stick around on Monday.

Here are the details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:

Moderate to strong upper-level flow will move across the Southern Plains over the next 24 to 48 hours, providing thunderstorm chances including some severe weather threats. Thunderstorms are developing on Monday morning across the High Plains of Texas and part of the Panhandle and will move southeast through the morning hours. Most of this thunderstorm activity should reside through central and southern Oklahoma. While the highest chance will remain across the southern third of the state, especially southward into North Texas, we’ll need to keep a probability for some shower and storm chances across northeastern Oklahoma later on Monday. Storms for the morning will be strong to severe across the southern third of the state producing hail and damaging wind gusts.

Severe weather is likely across Texas during the day and in the evening on Monday along a warm front. Late Monday night into predawn Tuesday as the warm front lifts northward, additional scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across South Central to southeastern Oklahoma, including the threat of large hail and some damaging winds. Most of this severe activity will remain south of the immediate Tulsa Metro, but some thunderstorms near or south of I-40 will be likely. The extent and coverage of thunderstorms Tuesday morning will play a role in the storm chances Tuesday afternoon. The highest chances on Tuesday afternoon may continue to be along the Red River into southeastern OK. As this system moves eastward, much warmer weather is likely to develop and spread across Oklahoma through the end of the week into the weekend. The upper air flow will be favorable for bringing a small storm complex near the area later Thursday night into early Friday morning, but the probability will remain low at this point.

Temperatures on Monday will be uncharacteristically mild with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and a few lower 80s. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will start in the mid-60s with thunderstorms across southeastern Oklahoma. Highs Tuesday afternoon will range into the lower 80s. Temperature trends for the second half of the week will bring much warmer weather with daytime highs Thursday in the lower 90s. Afternoon highs Friday and Saturday will reach the mid-90s and upper 90s by Sunday.

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