CBS News Prepares For Tight Presidential Election Night Projections

With the presidential race in a tight contest, news agencies are preparing for Election Night and when they’ll begin making projections as votes come in.

CBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, Anthony Salvanto, explained the process, which starts with analyzing polls and progresses to studying vote counts from individual counties.

“What we do at the data desk is look for patterns in the vote,” said Salvanto.

As an example, Salvanto cited the 2020 presidential race in Wisconsin, where data models tracked shifting support. Blue arrows indicated areas leaning toward President Joe Biden, while red arrows showed strength for former President Donald Trump.

“If we see consistent patterns in those vote shifts, then our models can start to point to the idea that the state is heading in one direction or another,” Salvanto added.

Turnout is another critical factor in determining a candidate’s strength.

“The higher bars represent more voters. We look at whether there is turnout in each and every one of these counties that’s sufficient for a candidate to make a margin that can give them or add to a statewide lead,” Salvanto said.

When counties report results is also pivotal, Salvanto noted. He recalled that in Pennsylvania four years ago, data was sparse three hours after polls closed.

“We still didn’t see a lot from Philadelphia, from all these voting-rich places that we know are going to be important in the state,” he said.

Salvanto says that understanding election patterns is more than just seeing results; it’s about interpreting voter intent.

“We’re looking and trying to understand what’s happened but more importantly, why it’s happened. What the patterns tell you about what the voters have chosen,” Salvanto said.

As Election Night approaches, CBS News advises patience as the complex process unfolds and the nation awaits final results.