David Payne's Spring 2025 forecast

All right, Oklahoma! It's that time of year when we look ahead and talk about what’s coming this spring.

After an incredibly busy and violent 2024 tornado season that shattered records, we’re gearing up for another active season. So, let’s dive into my spring forecast for 2025.

A Look Back at 2024’s Historic Tornado Season

Last year was one for the record books. We normally average 59 tornadoes in a calendar year, but 2024 brought a whopping 152 tornadoes — breaking the previous record of 149 set in 2019. The busiest months were April, May, and November, and we even had a couple of powerful EF-4 tornadoes. Nearly every county in Oklahoma, except for Harper County and parts of the Panhandle, saw tornado warnings at least once.

Early Start to 2025: Tornadoes Already on the Board

We’re already off to a busy start this year. In just the first couple of weeks of March, Oklahoma has already recorded 13 tornadoes. While that’s not a record, it’s definitely above average for this time of year. But remember, our two biggest months — April and May — are still ahead, and that’s when things can really ramp up.

Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook for 2025

During the peak tornado months of March through June, Oklahoma typically sees 82% of its yearly tornado activity. So, what’s in store this year?

1. Tornado Forecast: I’m calling for an average year overall — not as many tornadoes as 2024, but still slightly above average. Eastern Oklahoma could see above-average tornado and severe weather activity compared to the rest of the state.
2. High-End Tornado Days: I’m watching mid-to-late April and into May closely, as we could have a few big, high-end severe weather days during that window.

Warm Temperatures and Rainfall Outlook

Here’s what I’m seeing in terms of temperatures and rainfall:

1. Temperatures: Expect a warmer-than-average spring, especially west of I-35, extending out into western Oklahoma.
2. Rainfall:Eastern Oklahoma: Above-average rainfall.
3. Central Oklahoma: Near average rainfall.
4. Western Oklahoma and Panhandle: Below-average rainfall.

Impact of La Niña and Gulf of Mexico Conditions

La Niña, which has been active in the Central Pacific, is weakening, and we’re moving into a more neutral phase. Combine that with a very warm Gulf of Mexico, and that should keep the jet stream strong over Oklahoma during the peak months of April, May, and June. That strong jet stream is key for fueling severe storms.

The Bottom Line: Get Ready for Another Active Spring

While this year won’t be as intense as last year, Oklahoma will still see its fair share of severe weather. We’re expecting above-average tornado activity for parts of the state, warm temperatures, and a few big severe weather days. As always, the News 9 Weather Team and storm trackers are ready for whatever comes our way. So, stay weather aware, Oklahoma — spring is here, and we’re prepared!